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Wednesday, 21 November 2007 |
UK population '71m in 2031'
The number of people living in Britain will rise to 71 million over the next 25 years, official statistics have suggested. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), Britain's population, measured at 60.6 million last year, will rise 0.7 per cent annually.
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In 2016 the population is expected to have increased to 65 million; passing 70 million in 2028. The ONS says that the bulk of this population rise will take place in England, with predictions based on long-term assumptions of future fertility, life expectancy and migration revealing an eight per cent increase over the next 25 years.
The UK is now home to almost 61 million people, some 20 million more than a century ago and 50 million more than 1801, with the population growing in 99 of the past 100 years. Predictions that the number would stabilise at between 55 million and 60 million have been torn up and population growth is accelerating again, pushing the issue towards the top of the political agenda.
 The rate of increase has even taken Whitehall's statisticians by surprise, with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revising its population projections upwards. On current trends, the ONS now forecasts the numbers in Britain will grow to 62.8 million in 2011, 65 million in 2016, 67.2 million in 2021, 69.3 million in 2026 and 71.1 million in 2031, 78.6 million in 2051 and 85.3 million in 2081. That means that the UK's population is now rising by about 400,000 a year.
Guy Goodwin, the office's head of demography, said the impact on England would be equivalent to adding the entire population of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to the English total. It would require a massive reappraisal of long-term plans for housebuilding, transport, education and the health service.
Just over half the population growth is caused by increases in family size – the average woman now has 1.84 children – and by greater life expectancy. Boys and girls born today will live an average of 77.2 years and 81.5 years respectively; that is forecast to rise to 82.7 years and 86.2 years for those born in 2031.
The rest of the growth has been driven by higher-than-expected levels of migration in recent years, with a net annual influx of about 190,000 compared with previous estimates of 145,000. Population increases are predicted for the whole of the UK, although they are expected to be smaller in Scotland than elsewhere.
The country's demographic make-up is also altering rapidly, with Leicester set to become the first city where whites are in a minority by the end of next decade.
 But Liam Byrne, the Immigration minister, said: "These projections show what could happen unless we take action now." He said they underlined the need for "swift and sweeping" changes to the immigration system in the pipeline, including the introduction of an Australian-style points based system for migrants from outside the European Union.
He added that the ONS might have exaggerated its immigration projection by taking into account figures for 2004 and 2005 when immigration from eastern Europe peaked, but not counting data from 2006 when it fell. "I think it shows we were right to set the point score for new migrants by considering not only the good of the economy, but the realities of immigration's wider impact," he added. David Davis, the shadow home secretary, said: "The shocking acceleration in the rate of population growth makes it more urgent than ever that the government should introduce a properly controlled immigration system.
According to the projections, the population of England will increase by 8% by 2016, compared to 7% in Northern Ireland, 5% in Wales and 3% in Scotland, the ONS said. The demographic profile of the population will also change dramatically. For the first time this year the number of pensioners exceeds the number of children. By 2031 there will be at least 2 million more pensioners than children. The number over 75 will increase by 76% to 8.2 million. Mr Goodwin said this would pose a challenge to British society, with huge implications for hospitals, care homes, the housing stock, pensions and benefit systems. The ratio between people at work and people in retirement would fall.
The average age of Britons is expected to rise to from 39.6 years in 2006 to 40.6 years in 2016 and to 42.6 years by 2031. The number of under-16s in Britain is projected to rise from 11.5 million in 2006 to 12.1 million by 2016 and nearly 13 million by 2031. The number of pensioners is expected to exceed the under-16s by 400,000 in 2016 and by over 2 million in 2031.
The Optimum Population Trust, an environmentalist thinktank, said: "The UK is sleepwalking into a population and environment nightmare."
Sir Simon Milton, chairman of the Local Government Association, said: "Migration is benefiting the country, generating in total over £40bn every year. The problem is that the money generated isn't finding its way back down to the local level. Official statistics on how many migrants are coming and where they are going are woefully inadequate. No one has a real grasp of where migrants are settling, so much needed funding for local services isn't getting to the right places."
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